Many of the current polls are indicating that President Obama is significantly ahead of Mitt Romney. I wade into the area of polling with great trepidation, but here goes.
Rasmussen, which historically has been the most accurate poll, currently has the candidates tied. They also show that Republicans have a 4 percentage point advantage over Democrats in terms of party affiliation.
Doug Schoen and Pat Caddell, Democratic pollsters, have both expressed the belief that the polls are skewed against Romney. Pollsters are basing their samples on voter turnout from 2008, when Democratic turnout was greater than Republican. However, they are ignoring the elections of 2010, when Republicans turned out en masse to repudiate the Obama agenda. Does anyone really believe Democrats will turn out in bigger numbers than Republicans this year?
It is my belief that pollsters are attempting to shape public opinion rather than reflect it. It is a pathetic attempt to discourage Republican voters, but it is not going to work. In fact, I suspect it may actually backfire on them. It is my hope that people who plan to vote for Obama see these polls and believe that he has it wrapped up and therefore won't feel the need to actually go cast their votes.
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Polls: True or Skewed?
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